Air cargo demand soared to new heights in 2024.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that, in 2024, demand rose 11.3 percent as compared with 2023. In November, the group projected that the increase in demand for 2024 would hit 11.8 percent, half a percentage point higher than the actual figure.
The increased demand air cargo companies saw in 2024 also marked the highest-ever demand peak, ousting a record previously set in 2021 by 0.5 percent, the IATA said.
IATA measures demand in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs).
In line with surging demand, available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), which is how the IATA measures capacity, also increased, up 7.4 percent as compared with 2023.
And as carriers dealt with increased demand, they also increased efficiency. The IATA uses a metric called cargo load factor (CLF) to determine how efficiently cargo space is being used; it does so by dividing CTKs by ACTKs. In 2024, the average CLF came out to 45.9 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from 2023.
Yield rate averaged 1.6 percent lower than 2023, but Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said, on the whole, the year offered promising growth for the air cargo industry—particularly in the face of global elections, geopolitical conflict and increased fuel costs.
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“Air cargo was the standout performer in 2024 with airlines moving more air cargo than ever before. Importantly, it was a year of profitable growth. Demand, up 11.3 percent year-on-year, was boosted by particularly strong e-commerce and various ocean shipping restrictions,” Walsh said in a statement. “This combined with airspace restrictions which limited capacity on some key long-haul routes to Asia helped to keep yields at exceptionally high levels. While average yields continued to soften from peaks in 2021-2022 they averaged 39 percent higher than 2019.”
December 2024 closed out the year on a successful note, with global CTK surging 6.1 percent year over year, marking the 17th consecutive month of growth for demand. December saw the industry posting a CTK gain of 0.9 percent month on month after adjusting for seasonal variations.
The Asia-Pacific region and North America were the largest contributors to the CTK growth in December. North America’s contribution grew to 23.6 percent, up more than 17 percentage points from the same period in 2023. While Asia saw a 4.9 percentage point decline from 2023, it was still responsible for 46.6 percent of CTK.
Capacity also increased, with ACTKs going up by 3.7 percent compared to December 2023.
The industry also saw declining jet fuel prices on a global scale—prices dropped by 14.9 percent year over year in December and 1.2 percent month on month. The decrease marks the sixth consecutive month of declining prices, likely a welcome friend to an industry constantly competing with other modes of transporting goods.
IATA noted it believes those prices continue to drop because of an increasing global oil supply, as well as economic and energy changes in China; the company continues to increase its use of alternative energy sources like liquified natural gas (LNG).
And though air cargo yield, on the whole, was down in 2024, December saw increases to revenue for the industry, with a 6.6 percent year on year increase. Still, yield had declined by 0.4 percent month on month.
According to the IATA’s monthly report, the year-on-year growth comes because of synergy between multiple factors.
“A combination of factors is fueling the steady growth: robust holiday e-commerce demand, limited air cargo capacity between Asia and North America or Europe due to airspace restrictions and persistent disruptions in se shipping, including a de facto blockade in the Red Sea caused by Houthi-rebel attacks on merchant ships, particularly those bearing Western flags,” the group wrote.
As the IATA shifts its attention to 2025, it projects the industry will see moderate demand growth to the tune of 5.8 percent.
Walsh said as the industry looks ahead, he knows it will be subject to unforeseen challenges, particularly on the political front.
“Economic fundamentals point to another good year for air cargo—with oil prices on a downward trajectory and trade continuing to grow. There is no doubt, however, that the air cargo industry will be challenged to adapt to unfolding geopolitical shifts. The first week of the Trump administration demonstrated its strong interest in using tariffs as a policy tool that could bring a double whammy for air cargo—boosting inflation and deflating trade,” Walsh said in a statement.